What comes after Daesh?

Postwar counterterrorism strategy must prevent teenagers and widows from becoming a new generation of terrorists

BY DR. HUSSEIN ALAWI CHAIRMAN AND FOUNDER, AKKAD CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AFFAIRS AND FUTURE STUDIES

It seems that even if we manage to kill the last of the Daesh fighters, we won’t be able to kill the ideology that gave rise to this terrorist group. These ideas can be expected to blossom again and develop into a parasitic entity separate from its host. This parasitic organism will eventually lead to a renewed sense of anxiety and instability and pose a security threat in Iraq and across the world.

That is why we must address the risks and effects of Daesh beyond the international coalition’s battlefield successes in Iraq and Syria. This article addresses the issues facing our youth, whom Daesh is recruiting through a program known as “Birds of Paradise,” and the phenomenon of radicalized widows known as “Black Widows.” It is critical for the Iraqi government and local administrations in liberated cities to develop new programs to combat the terrorist organization and its effects on communities.

Counterterrorism information obtained from numerous documents and curricula attests to Daesh’s desire to instill aggressive behaviors and attitudes in new generations. These generations will work to destabilize the military and will target security and political successes in liberated areas, which will become the focal point of continuing Daesh efforts to undermine the Iraqi state. The remnants of Daesh will attempt to fill the void in some cities by courting advocates, sympathizers and the indecisive. This is exactly what encourages the terrorist organization to return in a new form.

Creating a national/international program to combat terrorism will give the Iraqi people and the government the best opportunity to effectively address this problem. Our efforts must focus not only on the military, but also on education and socialization to combat these dangerous influences. This will happen through global cooperative efforts with the international coalition countries, including the United States, Great Britain, France, Canada, Australia, Germany, Japan and other nations supporting the national/international program.

The effects of Daesh on adolescents must be addressed. Daesh may target socially isolated children to create a new generation of terrorists. These adolescents may attempt to kill Iraqis through terrorist attacks. Additionally, Daesh may attempt to capitalize on the widows of terrorists for combat operations.

If ignored, these future seeds of Daesh will come to haunt the Iraqi people and the international community. The question that security analysts and workers must confront in their counterterrorism efforts is: Who are these future seeds?

For a long time, Daesh has relied on individuals to carry out attacks and incite panic and instability. Recruiters provide training in countries such as Iraq, Syria and Libya through social media platforms. These platforms offer theoretical and operational lessons on how to carry out suicide attacks, and they also provide deluded spiritual and ideological lessons.

Child recruitment

New and terrifying information gathered by the United Nations indicates that Daesh has recruited 900 adolescent soldiers between the ages of 8 and 14 by invoking the Birds of Paradise belief, which asserts that young people who die before reaching adulthood go straight to heaven and are revered as martyrs. They are instructed in religion, fighting and survival in difficult conditions. These adolescent fighters pose a major threat to the world today, especially since they are not exclusively Iraqi or Syrian but rather a mix of nationalities.

Videos posted on social media networks in April, May and June 2016 show multiple images of adolescent terrorists and testify to the danger of this phenomenon. In western Iraq, Daesh used adolescents for combat operations after their defeat in Fallujah exposed an inability to recruit new soldiers. Information provided by the mothers of these children indicates that Daesh provided incentives and privileges to the families of local adolescents fighting with the terrorist organization. Videos broadcast in June 2016 showed adolescent suicide bombers, and photographs from Mosul revealed Daesh’s dependence on children.

The terror group goes to great lengths to recruit these children. In May 2016, Daesh issued a phone application for Android called “The Letters App.” It is designed to teach children the Arabic alphabet. But the phone application directs jihadi messages to children by connecting letters to corresponding jihadi words. For example, the word for the letter “mim” is “midfa,” i.e., cannon. “Ba” is “bundaqiya,” i.e., gun. “Dal” is “dababa,” i.e., tank. “Sad” is “saroukh,” i.e., bomb. Google has removed the phone application. However, it can still be linked through numerous websites. It should serve as a warning for its pretext of teaching children.

These efforts by Daesh are turning some adolescents into ticking time bombs. Evidence gathered during the battle of Salah Adin province in 2015 demonstrates Daesh’s attempts to disrupt the work of the Iraqi Armed Forces and undermine the efforts of the international coalition by pushing adolescent suicide bombers into Shia areas and mosques, such as in the Al-Baiyaa neighborhood in Baghdad. In one instance, a young Syrian man surrendered to Iraqi security forces after being overcome with feelings of guilt. Adolescents were among the suicide car bombers in Anbar province. These attacks targeted anti-terror operations of the Iraqi military forces. This situation demonstrates the necessity of intelligence forces to monitor individuals even after Mosul and Raqqa are liberated. Trained individuals will be ready when called upon by the leadership of Daesh to follow orders and carry out suicide missions and reprisals not only in Iraq, Syria and Libya, but also in Europe, the United States and other countries.

Women as terrorists

As for the widows of Daesh’s fighters, they will constitute a major development in the operations of the terrorist organization. The Black Widows phenomenon has become familiar. It occurs when a young woman wearing black clothes carries out a terrorist operation individually and without belonging to any specific organization. This type of terrorist attack has happened in Russia. And in December 2014, the United Arab Emirates witnessed an attack that mimicked this pattern.

A young Emirati girl, known as the “Reem Island Ghost,” sought to assassinate foreign workers with grenades. The Reem Island Ghost was transformed into a terrorist after joining an electronic jihadi forum that promoted the targeting of state institutions in the Emirates. According to the published confessions of the Reem Island Ghost in the Emirati newspaper Al-Itihad, the jihadi site broadcast a video explaining how to make bombs. Additionally, intelligence indicates that Daesh fighters killed in battle are now being succeeded by their widows and adolescent children in Iraq, Syria and Libya. In most cases, they are local citizens.

Most analyses of Daesh have determined that widows may soon become an important tool in suicide and combat operations. Daesh fighters may distance themselves from the primary arena of the conflict, and it may be easy to build a large network of women filled with hatred and resentment for local communities and governments. The Black Widows theory suggests that women may be used in combat operations across cluster cells or may manage plans for reprisal terrorist attacks. Any grievances and resentments of civilian life will be very beneficial to Daesh in exploiting widows and planning suicide attacks. This will make the battlefield more complex.

The lack of programs to combat terrorism beyond the cessation of fighting in Iraq and Syria will give Daesh the opportunity to recruit new generations of local terrorists adapted to their environments. These adolescents and widows will form the next phase of the organization and become one of the most basic tools for Daesh and other terrorist organizations. The ability of the Iraqi government and the international coalition to manage the provinces that have suffered under Daesh’s rule will be tested.

Addressing the problem

Successful outreach to the local population can provide information that can prevent Daesh’s deadly use of adolescents and widows in the coming stage of operations. A fair justice system, the equitable distribution of services and improvements to the local economy will all help to integrate those who were deceived by Daesh and joined its ranks. However, retreating from these efforts in the Iraqi provinces and focusing only on security and military tools will facilitate Daesh’s use of these two methods. This will threaten international security.

A program is needed to contain the emerging phenomenon of new generations being exploited by Daesh and other terrorist organizations. Therefore, the Iraqi government, counterterrorism efforts and the international coalition must build a national/international program to combat terrorism, extremism and violence and address the remnants of Daesh with the following methods:

Gather in-depth information about adolescents and widows in the liberated areas and construct a strategic database overseen by anti-terrorism professionals. These efforts must coordinate security with competent authorities to contain these threats.

Construct a social center in each province to bring about intellectual and social change. Build operational, intellectual, judicial, developmental and social lessons to re-instill humanitarian, national and social values in the hearts and minds of those affected by extremist and takfiri ideas.

Build a program of evaluation and follow-up that determines the scope of the courses and study seminars and monitors their effectiveness. Validate these studies through follow-up dialogue and technical reports from each panel discussion and seminar.

Involve the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, the Ministry of Government Banks, the Ministry of Education and Higher Education, the Ministry of Health and provincial councils in creating a developmental and economic program that builds individual skills. After participants graduate from these seminars, they should pursue professional vocations that generate income for the local community and promote sustainable and financially successful projects.

Urge civil society and community organizations to participate in rehabilitation programs for orphans and widows.

Urge security organizations to provide, at least temporarily, official government papers to facilitate rehabilitation among this population. The goal is to preserve human dignity until the end of the program period and the integration process. Following this, revoke these temporary papers and give participants who are not Iraqi nationals their documents in accordance with Iraqi laws and regulations. Deport anyone who is not Iraqi to his/her country of origin following negotiations with official government agencies and bodies holding proper authority.

Encourage vulnerable segments of society to find productive employment and monitor their relationship with society and compliance with local and federal authorities.

Measure the effects of the integration process on orphans and widows left behind by Daesh, as well as their interaction within their local communities.

Reward people who advance the integration process and make them conscious of their Iraqi nationality in the transition process toward good citizenship.

Encourage communities to facilitate the social integration of these people once they finish rehabilitation and training.