Energy Security equals Global Security

JASEM MOHAMED AL BUDAIWI, SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE COOPERATION COUNCIL FOR THE ARAB STATES OF THE GULf

May I start by expressing my sincere gratitude to the esteemed leadership of the Kingdom of Bahrain for graciously hosting this event and granting me the honor and privilege of addressing you. I would also like to extend my appreciation to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and the organizers of the “Manama Dialogue,” for providing this important platform that brings together government ministers, policymakers, experts and influencers in a unique forum for discussing critical issues in foreign policy, defense, and security in the Middle East.

Turning to the crucial topic of the new politics of energy security, I would like to reaffirm that it holds a paramount position in the policies of the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, which serve as a pivotal axis in the global realm of oil and gas, ensuring energy security worldwide.

It is crucial to examine the status of energy security in today’s world, which can be attributed to a number of factors:

• Conventional conflict. 
• Lack of back-up plans.
• The misguided narrative that alternative energy sources can replace fossil fuels.
• Years of underinvestment.

For decades, the Gulf States have consistently proven themselves reliable energy partners, demonstrating unwavering commitment to stabilizing global energy markets. Notably, during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, some of them undertook exceptional measures, such as reflagging their oil tankers, to safeguard the flow of oil despite the danger to their vessels.

More recently, the Ukrainian war crisis underscored the vital role played by the GCC countries in upholding energy security.  Despite formidable challenges that continue to cast a shadow of uncertainty on energy markets, the GCC countries have displayed resilience and maintained the continuity and stability of supply. For example, oil and gas trade routes have emerged from the region to Europe and elsewhere.

In the same context, it is important to stress the importance of maintaining the security of waterways, which is one of the vital and fundamental factors in ensuring energy security at the regional and global levels. These corridors form the arteries of maritime transport that ensure the flow of energy products to global markets. Any threat or interruption in these corridors may lead to severe disruptions in energy markets. Therefore, countries and international organizations must combine efforts to protect these corridors against military threats, piracy or environmental disasters.

It is imperative to emphasize strategic endeavors undertaken by the Gulf countries in bolstering energy security, including focusing on renewable energy sources, robust investment in research and development for sustainable energy solutions, fostering energy-efficient practices, and promoting private sector collaboration in joint projects. Moreover, the GCC countries acknowledge the importance of traditional energy supplies in the long term to ensure energy security and affordability. Yet, the six member states have also embraced renewables, as evident by their respective National Development Plans.

Please allow me to highlight some of the GCC countries major energy plans and projects, which go hand in hand with the 17 U.N. Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), mainly Goal No. 7: Affordable and Clean Energy, and align with the Paris Agreement:

1. The UAE Energy Strategy 2050 targets an energy mix that combines renewable, nuclear and clean energy sources to meet the UAE’s economic requirements and environmental goals as follows: 44% clean energy, 38% gas and 12% clean coal.
2. Bahrain aims to convert 20% of its energy into renewable energy by 2035 and reach carbon neutrality by 2060. The plan includes the implementation of solar and wind energy projects and aims to generate 5% of the country’s electricity from renewable sources by 2025.
3. With a commitment to clean energy and sustainability, the Saudi Vision 2030 is leading the charge in tackling energy and climate challenges. The focus is on innovative solutions such as the Circular Carbon Economy (CCE) and an increasingly diverse energy mix, in which 50% of energy will come from renewable sources by 2030. 
4. In 2022, Oman announced a target to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 and began reducing fossil fuel use in its domestic energy mix. Based on analysis of the current global project pipeline, Oman is on track to become the sixth largest exporter of hydrogen globally and the largest in the Middle East by 2030. 
5. As for Qatar’s National Vision 2030, it aims to generate 20% of electricity from renewable energy sources by 2030.
6. Last, but not least, Kuwait has a goal to generate 15% of its total power output from renewable sources by 2035.

For too long policymakers in advanced economies have ignored warnings from the oil and gas industry about the lack of investment. These policymakers have placed much faith in renewable energy sources. Oil and gas investment has significantly declined in the period from 2014 to 2021. Therefore, there is an urgent need to rectify this in order to ensure energy security and plug any gaps.  The world will need oil and gas for the foreseeable future to meet expanding demand.

This is underscored in OPEC’s recently released World Outlook 2023. It sees energy demand expanding by 23% between now and 2045, and with oil and gas still expected to meet over 50% of global energy needs by then.

For the oil industry alone, OPEC sees investment requirements of $14 trillion out to 2045, or around $610 billion per year. It is vital these are made, for consumers, producers, the global economy, and ultimately global energy security.

To this end, I would like to end my speech with the following four remarks:

1. I want to reiterate the urgent need to strengthen international cooperation, including protecting energy infrastructure and transmission routes, as well as confronting potential threats, be they military or cyber-related.
2. I want to affirm that a long-term vision is necessary to ensure energy security, irrespective of current conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war or other short-term challenges. Moreover, fostering cooperation and transparency between producers and consumers is crucial to ensuring the stability of oil markets.  
3. I want to explain that despite the commendable efforts by the GCC countries to collaborate as active members of the global community, addressing future challenges requires a broad, global alliance, as any disruption in energy supplies poses a threat to all countries, irrespective of their development status.
4. And finally, I want to highlight that it is of great significance to recognize that energy security constitutes an integral component of national and international security, and any lapse in energy security represents a lack in overall security.